June forecast shows continued growth for Colorado economy

Wednesday, June 19, 2019

DENVER — The Office of State Planning and Budgeting (OSPB) today released the June forecast showing stronger than expected revenue growth. Strong wage growth is driving continued consumer spending, sustaining our economic expansion. However, trade conflicts pose a risk to Colorado’s economy, as recently proposed escalations could result in higher prices for domestic consumers and fewer export markets for farmers and manufacturers.

“Colorado has one of the strongest economies in the country and we want every Coloradan to share in that success. By saving families money on education and health care, investing in priority areas and growing our reserves, we can set our state up for long-term prosperity and ensure that our economy works for all Coloradans,” said Governor Jared Polis. “Even though this forecast shows strong growth in revenue, Washington’s misguided tariffs and trade wars could negatively impact key Colorado industries like agriculture and manufacturing. We must continue to stand against policies that threaten our state's economic growth.”

General Fund revenue is projected to grow 7.1 percent in FY 2018-19 and 4.7 percent in FY 2019-20. The General Fund revenue forecast for FY 2018-19 was revised up from the March forecast by $270.7 million, or 2.2 percent. The forecast for FY 2019-20 was increased by $114.4 million, or 0.9 percent. The General Fund reserve is projected to be $274.8 million above the required statutory reserve amount of 7.25 percent of appropriations in FY 2019-20.

FY 2018-19 cash fund revenue is projected to grow 6.0 percent from the prior fiscal year, while FY 2019-20 cash fund revenue is forecast to decrease by 1.9 percent. Forecasted cash fund revenue for FY 2018-19 is $11.4 million, or 0.5 percent, lower than March projections. Cash fund revenue collections for FY 2019-20 are $29.8 million, or 1.2 percent, lower than March projections.

Revenue subject to TABOR is projected to be above the Referendum C cap by $295.6 million in FY 2018-19 and $412.2 million in FY 2019-20. TABOR refunds totaling $39.8 million will be paid out in FY 2018-19. This amount includes the $18.5 million in excess of the Referendum C cap in FY 2017-18, plus a net $21.3 million remaining from the FY 2014-15 TABOR refund.

You can view the full revenue forecast here.