Expected Revisions to Colorado Nonfarm Payroll Jobs
For Immediate Release
Date: February 21, 2018/ 8:00 AM
Contact: Bill Thoennes (303) 318-8004 or Cher Haavind (303) 318-8003
Office of Government, Policy and Public Relations
New feature: In addition to the Industry and Area tables, charts have been added. These charts compare the over the year growth rates for the official and modified series by industry sector and metropolitan statistical area. This allows the reader to quickly and visually analyze payroll jobs growth trends and whether expected revisions are upward, downward, or unchanged in a given period of time.
Third quarter 2017 Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) results indicate Colorado total nonfarm payroll jobs estimates will be revised up for this period with the release of benchmarked estimates in March 2018. September 2017 estimates are expected to be revised up by about 10,300, or four-tenths of a percentage point. July and August 2017 estimates are expected to be revised up by about three-tenths and four-tenths of a percentage point, respectively.
Applying these results through December 2017 brings estimated total nonfarm payroll jobs in December to 2,677,900. This change brings over the year payroll job growth estimates through December 2017 to 57,600 or 2.2 percent.
The final March 2018 benchmarked series are expected to vary from these estimates due to new seasonal adjustment factors and new estimates of nonfarm payroll jobs not covered by the unemployment insurance program.
Industry sectors expected to undergo an upward revision to payroll jobs estimates in the 3rd quarter1 include government (~10,800), construction (~7,700), mining and logging (~4,900), leisure and hospitality (~1,300), and manufacturing (~1,200).
The industry sectors expected to undergo a downward revision to payroll jobs estimates are professional and business services (~8,400), trade, transportation, and utilities (~2,000), information (~2,000), education and health services (~2,000), and other services (~1,800). Payroll jobs estimates for financial activities may also be revised down.
Payroll jobs estimates for the Denver (~9,100), Grand Junction (~2,200), Greeley (~1,500), and Colorado Springs (~1,000) Metropolitan Statistical Areas are expected to be revised up in the 3rd quarter1.
Total nonfarm payroll job estimates for the Fort Collins and Boulder Metropolitan Statistical Area are expected be revised down by about 1,700 and 1,200, respectively. Payroll jobs estimates the Pueblo Metropolitan Statistical Area may also be revised down.
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Expected Revisions to Colorado Nonfarm Payroll Jobs based on 4th quarter 2017 QCEW data will be released Wednesday, May 23, 2018.
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Every month of the year other than February the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, releases estimates of Colorado nonfarm payroll jobs for the previous month based on results from a survey of business establishments. Estimates for Colorado are produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for total nonfarm payroll jobs and specific industry sectors or groups of sectors across the entire state, and for the seven metropolitan statistical areas.
In February of each year these survey based estimates are compared to and adjusted in a process called “benchmarking” based on administrative records available since the release of the survey estimates. The results of that comparison are released in March.
For instance, at the beginning of the 2018 calendar year Colorado nonfarm payroll jobs estimates for the 4th quarter of 2016 and all of 2017 will be benchmarked based on information available from the QCEW program for the 4th quarter of 2016 and the first three quarters of 2017. These updated estimates will be released in March 2018.
The source of these administrative records for the QCEW program are unemployment insurance reports Colorado employers are required to file quarterly with the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment. Among other information, employers include the number of people employed at the firm for each month of the quarter for which the report is being filed. Although only firms with employees covered by the Colorado Unemployment Insurance program are required by state and federal law to submit these reports, this quarterly census of employment covers about 98 percent of all nonfarm payroll jobs and about 88 percent of total employment in Colorado.
Aggregated by industry, the QCEW data are more closely aligned with the definition of nonfarm payroll jobs than with total employment. This is because an individual holding more than one job is counted only once in the total employment estimate but multiple times in both QCEW and the nonfarm payroll jobs estimates. Total employment estimates are by place of residence while both QCEW and payroll jobs are by place of business.
Though the official nonfarm payroll jobs estimates are benchmarked only once a year, data from QCEW are available quarterly and, once available, can be compared to the official series to see by about how much the official statistics will be adjusted.